Reconstruction of the underlying networks with high fidelity and forecasts on par with a model that is supplied with the true network are achieved, providing a step toward explainable and scalable forecasting of complex systems.
Abstract
Machine learning methods predict many real-world systems with remarkable accuracy, but they are typically treated as black boxes that offer no insight into which interactions drive the dynamics. Causal discovery methods reconstruct the interaction network from observational data, but without regard to whether the inferred structure supports prediction. Existing approaches combining both tasks rely on a single global hyperparameter, such as a causal threshold or a fixed neighborhood size, which cannot recover the structure of heterogeneous systems. Here we introduce causal local states (CLS), a framework that simultaneously infers an approximate Granger-causal interaction network and forecasts the system dynamics. For each node independently, we select the smallest set of neighbors that allows a predictive model to forecast the node near-optimally, and the resulting neighborhoods are then combined for a forecast of the full system. On three benchmarks of increasing difficulty, we achieve reconstruction of the underlying networks with high fidelity and forecasts on par with a model that is supplied with the true network, providing a step toward explainable and scalable forecasting of complex systems.
Many real-world systems can be modelled as complex networks whose collective behaviour is governed by hidden interactions between nodes. Existing methods for inferring these interactions typically require controlled perturbations, time-resolved observations or multiple independent snapshots, all of which are often unavailable in practice. Here we show that class-based coupling strengths can be inferred from a single snapshot of node states when the system is observed close to a relative equilibrium. In this regime, all nodes share a common velocity, which can be absorbed into an effective class bias, transforming the inverse problem into a homogeneous linear system. The coefficients of this linear system are determined entirely by the observed local neighbourhoods and their coupling mechanism, enabling the application to arbitrary known coupling functions. We validate the approach on three different linear and nonlinear dynamical systems, recovering relative class-based couplings and, in special cases, absolute couplings. These results show that spatial heterogeneity can substitute for temporal sampling, enabling single-snapshot inference of hidden coupling strengths in networked dynamical systems.
Moritz Lampert, Dominic Grün, Ingo Scholtes· 0 citations
This work considers the task of conditional causal discovery as a Bayesian inference problem, in which the posterior is targeted over causal graphs and parameters conditional on an event such as a causal-effect constraint, and adapts rare-event estimation techniques to perform inference the joint graph-parameter space.
Cixuan Zhang, Guy Van den Broeck, Benjie Wang· 0 citations
A calibrated stochastic world model can reveal how uncertain a future is without revealing why it branches. The same conditional future law can arise because an observation aliases physical states or because dynamics remain random after the declared full state is fixed. We prove that ordinary transitions cannot identify these two sources, even for a perfect probabilistic predictor. ClosurePairs makes them identifiable by crossing compatible microstates with repeated exogenous disturbances and estimating state, noise, and state-noise interaction variance. The central consequence is operational: under finite hierarchical sampling, forecast difficulty governs the useful compute scale, while the alias/process composition provides complementary information about its direction-resolving the current state or sampling future randomness. ClosurePairs recovers source attribution at unchanged likelihood, reduces equal-budget decomposition error in a nonlinear interaction benchmark, and supports observation-only routing. On exact-marginal MetaWorld twins, an output-only allocator is at chance while a Closure-supervised probe on frozen JEPA-WM features routes 89.8-100%. In an independent ManiSkill PushCube confirmation, a stochastic RSSM's outputs and latents remain at chance, whereas an RGB-only Closure probe routes 100% under both ID and geometry/camera OOD over five seeds, matching direct allocation rather than exceeding it. Across five unseen allocation menus, the same Closure probe routes 92.5%/90.4% ID/OOD with no new oracle labels, versus 37.9%/32.9% for a frozen direct allocator. ClosurePairs is therefore an identifiable, reusable mechanism target that cannot be recovered from forecast quality alone.
This work proposes a general framework for model selection in binary-state spreading processes on networks and shows that asymptotic approximations in the thermodynamic limit can accurately predict inference outcomes in finite systems.
Javier Ureña-Carrión, Tiago P. Peixoto, G. Íñiguez· 0 citations
The Causal Regime Bayesian (CaReBayes) forecasting framework is proposed, which integrates regime detection, causal discovery, and Bayesian forecasting within a unified approach and produces regime-dependent causal graphs that summarize candidate structural relationships in the system, enhancing interpretability.
HyperODE is introduced, a surrogate capable of operating across an entire class of approximately mass-conserving compartmental models without retraining, by mapping the structure of ordinary differential equations into directed hypergraphs, which decouples the functional form of system interactions from the neural network architecture.
A new machine-learning framework aims to improve the success rate of computational protein design while moving away from results that reproduce sequences found in nature.
MIT News · Artificial Intelligence· news.mit.eduAug 24, 2026
