Many real-world systems can be modelled as complex networks whose collective behaviour is governed by hidden interactions between nodes. Existing methods for inferring these interactions typically require controlled perturbations, time-resolved observations or multiple independent snapshots, all of which are often unavailable in practice. Here we show that class-based coupling strengths can be inferred from a single snapshot of node states when the system is observed close to a relative equilibrium. In this regime, all nodes share a common velocity, which can be absorbed into an effective class bias, transforming the inverse problem into a homogeneous linear system. The coefficients of this linear system are determined entirely by the observed local neighbourhoods and their coupling mechanism, enabling the application to arbitrary known coupling functions. We validate the approach on three different linear and nonlinear dynamical systems, recovering relative class-based couplings and, in special cases, absolute couplings. These results show that spatial heterogeneity can substitute for temporal sampling, enabling single-snapshot inference of hidden coupling strengths in networked dynamical systems.
Reconstruction of the underlying networks with high fidelity and forecasts on par with a model that is supplied with the true network are achieved, providing a step toward explainable and scalable forecasting of complex systems.
Jonas Braun, Fabian Fischbach, Daniel Köglmayr et al.· 0 citations
Accurately estimating the coupling strength in oscillator networks from macroscopic observations alone is essential for predicting synchronization transitions. We consider the inverse problem of reconstructing the unknown coupling strength $K$ in the globally coupled Kuramoto model from scalar observations of the macroscopic order parameter $R(t)$, assuming that the natural frequencies and the initial phase configuration are known. This problem is motivated by practical situations in which individual oscillator phases are inaccessible, whereas a coarse-grained collective signal can be measured continuously. Rather than relying on microscopic state observations, our method infers the coupling strength solely from the evolution of the macroscopic order parameter. We employ an extended Kalman filter with an augmented state representation that recursively estimates the coupling strength from observations of $R(t)$. By exploiting the mean-field structure of the globally coupled Kuramoto model, the covariance prediction step can be computed efficiently, substantially reducing the computational cost. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the proposed estimator accurately reconstructs the coupling strength and remains stable even when $R(t)$ is small and strongly fluctuating.
G. Kim, Hoseok Sul, Jee-Woong Choi et al.· 0 citations
Collective dynamics arise in a wide range of physical, biological, and engineering applications. Examples include cell migration, swarm robotics, social dynamics, and animal behavior. A defining characteristic of these systems is the emergence of large-scale coordination from local interactions among agents; a fundamental question is thus to understand the local interactions that give rise to the observed emergent dynamics. We are interested in methods for learning interactions generally, which can describe a wide class of physical systems exhibiting collective dynamics defined by an interaction kernel, without a priori assumptions on the analytical form of this kernel (i.e. it is nonparametric). The advantage of this kernel-based approach is that it incorporates the underlying physics of the model (i.e. collective dynamics), which more general equation-learning approaches may ignore, potentially limiting their effectiveness for model accuracy and predictions. In this work, we extend existing variational learning approaches to collective systems with both interaction kernels and environmental/intra-agent forces. The proposed framework simultaneously infers the interaction kernel non-parametrically while learning the environmental force using either semi-parametric or fully nonparametric representations. The methodology is validated on several benchmark models exhibiting synchronization, alignment, attraction-repulsion, and external environmental forces. We also introduce a model-selection procedure based on our nonparametric learning framework to identify models that optimally explain a given set of trajectory observations. By exploiting the feature-identification capability of the learned models, the proposed procedure can distinguish among different collective dynamics frameworks and recover mechanistic interaction mechanisms directly from trajectory data.
Nipuni de Silva, Ming Zhong, James M. Greene· 0 citations
We derive a one-dimensional reduction for nonlinear dynamics on simplicial complexes containing both pairwise and triangular (higher-order) interactions. The effective state is defined using a mixed weight determined by the pairwise and triangular degrees of each node. The resulting reduced equation retains two structural coefficients, associated separately with the pairwise and higher-order coupling channels. A fluctuation expansion identifies the closure assumptions underlying the reduction and shows how deviations of individual node states from the effective state contribute to the approximation error. We numerically validate the proposed framework on Gene-regulatory dynamics, the double-well system, and SIS spreading. The states of the reduced model are compared with full-network simulations through coupling-parameter sweeps, steady-state branch calculations, and progressive node-removal experiments on synthetic and real-world networks. The reduced model successfully reproduces the principal transitions and steady-state branches in all three dynamical systems considered. Agreement is strongest for relatively homogeneous networks and deteriorates when structural heterogeneity produces a broader distribution of node states. The closure diagnostics account for this loss of accuracy and indicate when a single effective state is no longer sufficient. The reduction therefore provides a tractable description of resilience in systems with coexisting pairwise and higher-order interactions.
Amit Tiwari, C. Hens, Prosenjit Kundu· 0 citations
This work proposes a general framework for model selection in binary-state spreading processes on networks and shows that asymptotic approximations in the thermodynamic limit can accurately predict inference outcomes in finite systems.
Javier Ureña-Carrión, Tiago P. Peixoto, G. Íñiguez· 0 citations
Stochastic reaction networks are continuous-time Markov chain models for interacting populations, with applications in biochemistry, epidemiology, ecology, and related areas. We study finite-difference sensitivity estimation when a single estimator requires several nearby parameterized paths. Existing variance-reducing couplings are typically pairwise, so that repeated use is either inefficient or requires application-specific choices in multi-path settings. We introduce the multi-path stacked coupling (MSC), a space-time Poisson construction that jointly generates any finite collection of parameterized paths. Each pairwise marginal of MSC has the same law as the corresponding split coupling pair, allowing existing variance bounds to transfer directly; in finite-state settings, we also obtain first-order expansions for the mean and second moment of finite-difference numerators. We apply MSC in three settings of practical importance: estimating many first derivatives simultaneously, estimating a single first derivative using a wider finite-difference stencil, and estimating higher-order derivatives. Numerical experiments on a processive phosphorylation network demonstrate strong performance in each of the three application areas considered, consistent with the theoretical advantages of MSC: across all three applications, MSC achieves the smallest root mean square error (RMSE) among the methods considered over the tested computational budgets.