In the context of heterogeneous treatment scale-up among countries, a hepatitis C vaccine is likely to have a positive return-on-investment when used to vaccinate populations at highest risk of infection.
Abstract
Background
The increased availability and cost-reduction of curative hepatitis C therapies and global commitments to elimination through treatment scale-up have made the value proposition for a hepatitis C vaccine unclear. This study aimed to estimate the health impact and benefit-cost ratio of a potential hepatitis C vaccine under different use scenarios.
Methods
A compartmental model of hepatitis C transmission, disease progression and care cascade was calibrated to 116 countries, with populations stratified by age, sex, injection drug use status and incarceration status. Model inputs were taken from global datasets (e.g. United Nations, Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation), published academic literature and WHO reports. Scenarios projected for 2026-2050 included: (1) test-treat-vaccinate for people who inject drugs at existing country-specific testing coverage; (2) Scenario 1 plus a one-off test-treat-vaccinate campaign for people who inject drugs; (3) Scenario 2 plus test-treat-vaccinate of prison populations; (4) Scenario 3 plus school-based vaccination; and (5) Scenario 4 plus a five-year adult catch-up campaign. Each scenario's comparator was a counterfactual with equivalent testing and treatment but no vaccine. Only RNA-negative individuals were eligible for the vaccine (i.e. following negative test or post-treatment), and the vaccine was modelled to increase spontaneous clearance rates to 80% for a mean five-year period. Vaccination costs included commodity (assumed US$5 per person in low and lower-middle income settings, with cost ratio of 1:2:15 for upper-middle and high income settings), service delivery and programmatic costs. Benefits included reduced confirmatory testing, treatment, disease management and productivity losses.
Results
Globally, scenarios 1-5 averted 1.13-8.76 million infections and 2,490-24,100 deaths. Scenarios 1, 2 and 3 had benefit-cost ratios of 2.86, 3.24, and 2.20 respectively. Scenario 4 only had a benefit-cost ratio > 1 for a vaccine with longer duration of protection. Scenario 5 had a benefit-cost ratio < 1 for all characteristics tested.
Conclusions
In the context of heterogeneous treatment scale-up among countries, a hepatitis C vaccine is likely to have a positive return-on-investment when used to vaccinate populations at highest risk of infection.
TRIAL REGISTRATION
Not applicable.
BACKGROUND
Pneumococcal disease, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza, and COVID-19 place a significant burden on France's population health, health system, and economy. Older adults and adults in clinical risk groups are recommended to receive vaccination against these illnesses, although RSV is not reimbursed.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS
A benefit-cost analysis was conducted to assess the societal return on investment from adult vaccination by estimating benefit-cost ratios (BCRs) and net benefits (NBs). Health outcomes were monetized using established methods. Program costs included all direct vaccination-related expenditures. Scenario and sensitivity analyses assessed alternative program specifications and tested the robustness of the model.
RESULTS
France's age-based respiratory immunization programs generate a BCR of €2.0 to €8.7 per €1 spent over the lifetime, depending on mortality risk reduction monetization. This corresponds to NBs of €9.7 to €72.6 billion. Introducing adult RSV vaccination with a similar uptake to that in the US could increase NBs by approximately 6%-7% compared to the status quo. Achieving aspirational coverage targets across all programs would increase NBs by 138%-175%.
CONCLUSIONS
France's adult respiratory vaccination programs generate positive socioeconomic returns. Including adult RSV vaccination and increasing vaccination uptake would further increase their societal benefits. Realizing these gains requires adequate public investment.
Matthew Napier, S. Brassel, E. Tunnicliffe et al.· Expert Review of Vaccines· 0 citations
Introducing TCV into Indonesia's NIP is projected to be very cost-effective, and adding a catch-up campaign is an optimal strategy with greater public health impact while remaining very cost-effective.
J. Haposan, J. A. Thobari, Emma Watts et al.· Vaccine· 0 citations
BACKGROUND
Pneumococcal disease remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality among children under five years of age, particularly in settings with low vaccine coverage. In China, the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) is not included in the National Immunization Program (NIP), resulting in suboptimal uptake. This study evaluated the health and economic impact of including PCV13 in the immunization program in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region.
METHODS
A decision tree-Markov model was used to simulate a birth cohort of 420,000 children over a 5-year horizon from a societal perspective. The current self-paid vaccination strategy was compared with NIP inclusion. Outcomes included costs, cases, deaths, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), and benefit-cost ratios (BCRs). Costs and outcomes were discounted at 3%. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.
RESULTS
NIP inclusion increased vaccination coverage from 5900 to 417,019 children and was projected to prevent 77,042 cases and 327 deaths over 5 years. Despite higher vaccination costs, reduced disease burden resulted in a net economic benefit of USD 3.92 million (BCR: 1.03). The program generated an additional 25,702.2 QALYs, with an ICER of USD 6042.75 per QALY gained, below the per capita GDP threshold. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that most simulations were below the willingness-to-pay threshold, with the probability of cost-effectiveness approaching 100%.
CONCLUSIONS
Including PCV13 in Guangxi's immunization program is highly cost-effective and likely to yield positive economic returns. These findings are robust and support policy decisions on PCV13 inclusion.
Quan He, Bangjun Pang, Zhengqin Su et al.· Vaccine· 0 citations
ABSTRACT Background Patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) are increased risk of herpes zoster (HZ). The economic value of HZ vaccines in Thai patients with ESRD has not been assessed. This study evaluated the cost-utility and budget impact of two HZ vaccination strategies – zoster vaccine live (ZVL) and recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) – compared with no vaccination in Thailand. Methods A Markov model was developed to estimate lifetime health and economic outcomes in patients with ESRD. Cost-utility analysis was conducted from a societal perspective, while budget impact analysis was performed from a payer perspective over a 5-year time horizon. Model inputs were derived from published literature and Thai data sources. Uncertainty was assessed using deterministic, probabilistic, and scenario sensitivity analyses. Results In the base-case analysis, both ZVL and RZV were cost-effective compared with no vaccination, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) of USD 1,599.14 (THB 51,912.56) and USD 2,920.09 (THB 94,794.30) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, respectively – both below Thailand’s willingness-to-pay threshold. RZV generated greater health benefits but was associated with higher costs. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of cost-effectiveness results across key assumptions. Over a 5-year period, the estimated budget impact ranged from USD 4.99–9.55 million (THB 161.86–310.02 million) for ZVL and USD 28.92–55.42 million (THB 938.95–1,799.09 million) for RZV, depending on vaccine uptake assumptions, with expenditures largely concentrated in the first year due to vaccination of prevalent patients. Conclusion Both HZ vaccines are cost-effective options for preventing HZ in Thai patients with ESRD. While RZV provides greater health gains, it requires substantially higher budgetary investment. These findings support prioritising HZ vaccination for patients with ESRD and initiating pilot implementation within dialysis care settings to assess system-level impact and feasibility.
Nattanichcha Kulthanachairojana, Pattheera Phothong, Pitch Promkladphanao et al.· Journal of Pharmaceutical Po...· 0 citations
Moving from universal birth-dose vaccination to SCDM was projected to reduce timely vaccination and increase preventable infections across all scenarios and the societal-cost conclusion hinged on whether SCDM imposed counseling-time burden at scale, whereas the unfavorable health-effect direction was robust.
Y. T. Yang· Journal of Medical Economics· 0 citations