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3,683 papers

#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Conditional Mean Flows: Few-Step Densities for Simulation-Based Inference

Flow matching has emerged as a powerful generative family for simulation-based inference (SBI). However, sampling and density evaluation require numerical integration at inference time. This makes posterior sampling in neural posterior estimation costly. More importantly, it can make repeated likelihood evaluation proh...

Jonas Arruda, Jan Hasenauer, Stefan T. Radev · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Two Sample Sizes in Test-Time LLM Ensembling: Buffered ERM and Minimax Theory

Test-time scaling can improve the performance of large language models by generating multiple answers to a question and aggregating them. Weighted ensembles extend this idea by drawing answers from several models, with the weights determining how often each model is used. Learning these weights from a training dataset...

Zhi Zhang, Arash A. Amini · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Oct 2026

Dimension-Free PAC-Bayes Generalization for Deep Neural Networks via Dirichlet Processes

Classical PAC-Bayesian generalization theory places prior distributions over Euclidean parameter space $\Theta \subseteq \mathbb{R}^D$, causing relative entropy to scale with network dimension $D$. For modern overparameterized neural networks where $D \gg n$, this parameter-counting dependency yields vacuous generaliza...

Sumit Vashishtha · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Oct 2026

Score Mismatch and Set-Constrained Sampling in Zero-Shot Conditional Discrete Diffusion

Discrete diffusion models have become a powerful framework for modeling complex discrete distributions across a range of applications. While theoretical convergence guarantees depend on consistency between the target and training distributions, such a case rarely holds in practice, making score mismatch a central chall...

Ren-Xiang Huang, Yu-Chen Liang, Ying-Bin Liang et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Efficient Agnostic Learning of Univariate Densities Under Local Differential Privacy

We propose a general framework for non-interactive locally differentially private (LDP) learning of structured univariate distributions that can be approximated by piece-wise polynomials. This gives the first sample-efficient LDP learners for several distribution classes, including mixtures of log-concave distributions...

Mohammad Afzali, Hassan Ashtiani, Sivan Sabato · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

On the Last-Iterate Convergence of Clipped Gradient Methods

In stochastic (strongly) convex optimization, establishing last-iterate convergence guarantees for first-order methods has recently garnered increasing attention, as this not only deepens the theoretical understanding of these algorithms but also aligns more closely with practice. Notably, people have demonstrated that...

Zijian Liu · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Oct 2026

Acceleration and its Limits in Gaussian Variational Inference

We study whether the classical momentum-based acceleration that improves the condition-number dependence of gradient descent from $\kappa$ to $\sqrt{\kappa}$ for strongly convex, smooth objectives extends to Gaussian variational inference (GVI) for strongly log-concave, log-smooth target distributions. With exact Gauss...

Jaesung R. Park, Uijeong Jang, Yi-Fan Chen · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Two-Stage Score Estimation for Group-Specific Diffusion Models

Generative modeling across related distributions raises a question: how can shared structure support accurate generation for a target distribution with limited observations? We develop a statistical framework for diffusion transfer that analyzes a shared pooled score together with a target-specific offset. Under Besov...

Huitao Yang, Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Ranked Right, Sized Wrong: Ensemble Spread Fails Silently at Streamflow Extremes

Deep learning models, particularly Long Short-Term Memory networks, are increasingly used for operational streamflow forecasting, with ensemble spread providing a signal of predictive uncertainty. As climate change increases the frequency of hydroclimatic extremes, these models will increasingly operate under flow cond...

Justin Gallant, Tyler Wilson · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Oct 2026

Stochastic Gradient Descent: A Nonlinear Time Series Perspective

This paper investigates the statistical behavior of Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) with constant step size under the framework of iterated random functions. Compared to previous studies establishing the convergence of SGD in probability measure, e.g., Wasserstein distance, our approach directly provides the converge...

Jia-Qi Li, Zhipeng Lou, S. Richter et al. · 8 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Flexible Doubly Robust Proximal Causal Inference for Censored Outcomes

Estimating causal effects on right-censored time-to-event outcomes is challenging under unmeasured confounding. Proximal causal inference addresses unmeasured confounding through proxy variables, but existing proximal survival methods rely largely on restrictive parametric bridge models. We introduce Proximal Survival...

Dhanajit Brahma, Ruolin Meng, Lawrence Carin et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Oct 2026

Time-partitioning Gaussian Process Mixture Model

The Time-partitioning Gaussian Process Mixture Model (TPGPMM), a Bayesian nonparametric framework for regime identification and nonstationary prediction that infers such regimes and their within-regime dependence from data, without Markovian assumptions is proposed.

Guilherme Piantino, H. Lopes · 0 citations

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