Comparison of Different Seismic Fragility Models for the Prediction of the 2012 Emilia Damage Scenario
Abstract
This study addresses the seismic vulnerability of unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings affected by the 2012 Emilia earthquake sequence through a scenario-based damage assessment. The OpenQuake engine is employed to simulate damage scenarios by integrating detailed exposure data, ground-motion fields derived from INGV and UNIBO shakemaps, and a selection of fragility models developed using different methodological frameworks. Particular attention is given to the critical comparison of analytical, empirical, and hybrid models, with reference to their underlying assumptions, treatment of seismic input, and compatibility with available exposure and damage data. The results demonstrate that fragility-model selection, ground-motion representation, and regional construction typologies substantially influence scenario-based damage estimates. By fostering a more informed and critical use of fragility functions, this work provides a methodological framework for their application in damage scenario simulations and risk-informed decision-making, thereby supporting the refinement of vulnerability models and the development of more effective strategies for risk mitigation and emergency planning.