Post-2000 Urban Sprawl in Erbil, Iraq: Impacts on Urban Form, Socioeconomic Dynamics, Culture, and Quality of Life

Abstract

This study examines the multidimensional impacts of rapid urban sprawl in Erbil, Northern Iraq, a city that experienced substantial built-up area expansion after 2000. Employing Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling ( PLS-SEM ) with survey data from 1,200 residents across seven concentric ring zones, we investigate how sprawl affects urban form quality, environmental conditions, transportation accessibility, infrastructure services, and overall quality of life. Results reveal significant positive relationships between perceived sprawl and urban form quality ( β = 0.638), environmental quality ( β = 0.751), infrastructure services ( β = 0.669), and transportation accessibility ( β = 0.859). Multi-group analysis demonstrates that peripheral zones experience approximately 45% stronger negative effects compared to central areas. The model explains 41% of quality-of-life variance, providing empirical evidence for implementing urban growth boundaries and prioritizing green infrastructure in rapidly expanding Middle Eastern cities shaped by rentier state dynamics.