The Impact of IT Service Exports on Macroeconomic Indicators of Countries in the Context of Globalization
TL;DR
A stable inverse relationship between IT service export growth and the unemployment rate was proven, where the IT sector acts as a macroeconomic compensator and labor market stabilizer, confirming the structural role of the digital sector for national economies.
Abstract
The purpose of the article is to assess the consistency and specific characteristics of the relationship between IT service export volumes and key macroeconomic indicators in client countries, global leaders, and regional IT hubs based on a comparative calculation of Fechner coefficients. Empirical analysis was carried out using the statistical method of evaluating the consistency of deviation signs from mean values (Fechner coefficient) for a sample of six countries (USA, UK, India, Estonia, Romania, Ukraine) over the period 2012–2023 using official data from the World Bank and national central banks. As a result of calculations, a high direct consistency was established between the dynamics of IT service exports and GDP growth (Y1), as well as GDP per capita (Y2) in most studied countries (KF = 0.67 … 1.00), confirming the structural role of the digital sector for national economies. Significant differences were identified in the relationship between IT exports and net foreign direct investment inflows (Y3): developed client countries (USA, UK) and large service economies exhibit unstable or weak sign correlation, whereas CEE regional hubs (Romania, Estonia) show a moderate positive link. For most of the studied countries (Ukraine, Romania, India, the UK, the USA), a stable inverse relationship between IT service export growth and the unemployment rate (Y4, KF = -0,67) was proven, where the IT sector acts as a macroeconomic compensator and labor market stabilizer. The scientific novelty lies in improving the comparative analysis of the consistency of IT sector macroeconomic linkages through expanding geographic coverage and categorizing countries into global clients, scaled outsourcers, and regional hubs under conditions of geopolitical instability. The practical significance of the results lies in the possibility of their utilization by state executive authorities and analytical centers when developing national digital transformation strategies, stimulating export potential, and shaping investment policy.