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Transmission Dynamics and Optimal Control of Malaria-Dengue Co-infection: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Francis Agono G. Acheneje B. C. Agbata A. Awasthi Hambeer Singh A. Smerat M. Manivel B. Bolaji

Aug 2026 · European Journal of Statistics · 0 citations

TL;DR

Cost-effectiveness analysis using infection averted ratio (IAR), average cost-effectiveness ratio (ACER), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) reveals that the combined implementation of all six control measures (Strategy 9) is most cost-effective, averting 9,200 infections (35.38% reduction) at an ACER of 3,756.536.

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive deterministic compartmental model for malaria-dengue co-infection incorporating distinct vector populations (Anopheles for malaria and Aedes for dengue), disease-specific progression pathways, and co-infection compartments. The model is rigorously analyzed to establish positivity, boundedness, disease-free and endemic equilibria, and basic reproduction numbers. Optimal control theory is applied to evaluate six time-dependent intervention strategies: insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), environmental management, personal protection measures, treatment compliance, and vaccination. Model parameters are estimated using Brazilian malaria and dengue case data (2011-2023). Sensitivity analysis identifies key parameters influencing disease transmission. Cost-effectiveness analysis using infection averted ratio (IAR), average cost-effectiveness ratio (ACER), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) reveals that the combined implementation of all six control measures (Strategy 9) is most cost-effective, averting 9,200 infections (35.38% reduction) at an ACER of 3,756.536. These findings provide crucial guidance for designing economically efficient intervention strategies in resource-constrained co-endemic settings.

DOI Semantic Scholar

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