Advances in Trajectory Prediction for High-Speed UAVs: A Review

Abstract

High-speed Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), characterized by high velocity and maneuverability, represent critical strategic threats within the aerospace security domain. Accurate trajectory prediction is a fundamental prerequisite for effective early warning and decision-making in defense. Despite increasing research in the domain, model-, data-, and hybrid-driven methods have not yet been comprehensively examined under a unified framework, limiting the understanding of their relative strengths and applicability. To address this gap, this paper systematically reviews the evolution and current technical status of these paradigms, categorized by the core logic underlying prediction methods. The principles and applicability limits of physical process modeling and state estimation algorithms are analyzed, along with emerging applications of machine learning and deep learning for trajectory feature extraction and pattern recognition. State-of-the-art architectures involving the integration of physical constraints and data-driven learning are discussed. Standard evaluation metrics are introduced to facilitate performance benchmarking of existing methods. Comparative analysis reveals that no single technical route can fully address the coupled challenges of uncertainty, accuracy, and real-time performance, underscoring that hybrid frameworks are essential for balancing these competing requirements. Lastly, key challenges are summarized, and future research directions are outlined to advance trajectory prediction methodologies. The provided insights can inform method selection and promote the development of high-accuracy prediction systems.