Burden of Varicella in Chongqing, China: An Economic Analysis
TL;DR
The findings highlight that varicella imposes a considerable and persistent economic burden in Chongqing, predominantly affecting younger populations, and underscore the urgent need to enhance two-dose vaccine uptake, reinforce school-based surveillance, and consider subsidised immunisation strategies to mitigate both disease incidence and financial impact.
Abstract
: This study estimated the economic burden of varicella in Chongqing, China, over the period 2020-2025 using hospital charging data and official statistics, with projections extending to 2026-2027 via time-series SARIMA models. Data on GDP, demographics, and monthly case notifications were extracted from public databases, enabling a comparative analysis between urban (Yubei District People’s Hospital) and rural (Kaizhou District People’s Hospital) settings. Direct medical costs, indirect productivity losses, and public health response expenditures were comprehensively calculated. The average annual total economic burden, including vaccination outlays, amounted to 122.10 million yuan (USD 17.0 million) for 2020-2025, with forecasted values of 105.99 and 106.41 million yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively. Children aged<15 years constituted the majority of both cases and inpatient costs, while a marked urban-rural disparity was observed in the outpatien-to-inpatient ratio (45.83:1 versus 4.03:1). Indirect productivity losses represented a substantial component of overall costs, yet two-dose vaccination coverage remained low (e.g:only 12.03% for the first dose in Jiulongpo District). These findings highlight that varicella imposes a considerable and persistent economic burden in Chongqing, predominantly affecting younger populations, and underscore the urgent need to enhance two-dose vaccine uptake, reinforce school-based surveillance, and consider subsidised immunisation strategies to mitigate both disease incidence and financial impact.