Simplified Swarm Optimization for Surrogate-Assisted Reliability Design of Insulated-Gate Bipolar Transistor Power Modules Using an Open-Source Process Finite-Element Model

Abstract

Process-induced warpage, ceramic stress and solder strain limit the reliability of insulated-gate bipolar transistor (IGBT) modules on direct-bonded copper (DBC) substrates. Surrogate-assisted design studies train regression models on finite-element analysis (FEA) databases, but rarely check the optimized designs against new FEA or report how surrogate error interacts with the optimizer. This paper builds and evaluates an open pipeline: an open-source process finite-element model, surrogates tuned by Simplified Swarm Optimization (SSO), multi-objective design search, FEA confirmation of selected designs and confirmation-driven infill. The model starts at the second reflow and reproduces measured warpage within 18.2%, 33.6% and 15.3% at the reflow, housing and molding stages without fitted parameters. On a balanced 60-design database, all stochastic tuners reach the same test accuracy, outperform the published grid on cross-validated performance for every output but generalize better only for warpage; the cross-validated ranking of tuners does not transfer to the test set. With equal result reporting, multi-objective SSO and the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II give comparable Pareto fronts; a corrected multi-objective particle swarm optimizer trails both. FEA confirmation shows that warpage predictions hold (mean absolute error 0.5%), whereas at the design-space bounds reached by the optimizers the ceramic-stress surrogate is optimistic by up to 26%. Two confirmation-driven infill rounds reduce this error to 1-10% and halve the out-of-sample error; no confirmed design improves on the database in ceramic stress. Ceramic-stress results are indicative, as the metric is mesh-sensitive at production resolution. The model, database, scripts and pre-registered and post-registration results are released.