AIS-Based Vessel Trajectory Prediction Using H3-Indexed Historical Trajectory Context

Abstract

Deep learning-based vessel trajectory prediction using Automatic Identification System (AIS) has become a hot topic in the fields of maritime traffic monitoring, situational awareness, and navigational decision support. However, most previous studies have focused primarily on end-to-end model training using trajectory data from a single water area, which limits the resulting models’ ability to generalize to regions with different traffic patterns. To address this issue, this study proposes a method that constructs traffic context from historical AIS records at multiple geographic resolutions using H3, a hexagonal hierarchical spatial indexing system, and integrates this context with a Transformer-based trajectory predictor. A reliability-aware selector determines the contribution of the context to the final prediction, conditioning this decision on the vessel’s motion state and the retrieved historical patterns. Experiments on AIS data from three distinct water areas demonstrated that H3-indexed context improved cross-water prediction accuracy without requiring model retraining on the target area. These findings demonstrate that H3-indexed context, structured at multiple geographic resolutions and integrated through a selective mechanism, serves as transferable spatial context for vessel trajectory prediction.