AI and the Research Team
TL;DR
A span-of-control model predicts that a fully codifiable team peaks when effective automation coverage reaches a closed-form threshold, typically near complete coverage, and, among fields with shared primitives that possess an interior peak, those with less irreducibly human task content peak first.
Abstract
Artificial intelligence is associated with larger research teams, yet in mathematics, among the most codifiable fields, individual researchers working with AI now produce research-grade results. A span-of-control model reconciles these observations. AI lowers execution cost, which expands laboratory scale, and automates codifiable tasks, which lowers the member share of each unit. Team size is therefore quasi-concave in AI capability, with at most one peak. The model predicts that a fully codifiable team peaks when effective automation coverage reaches a closed-form threshold, typically near complete coverage, and, among fields with shared primitives that possess an interior peak, those with less irreducibly human task content peak first. Under explicit priors, the 90 percent forecast intervals for the fully codifiable peak span 2026 to 2030.