Near-Term Emission Targets Need Immediate Attention in the USA

Satellite-based emissions estimate indicates progress toward China's methane mitigation goals

China emits the most methane of any country worldwide, but there are large uncertainties in recent emissions trends, sources, and the potential impacts of policy actions. This study focuses on a period when the government initiated ambitious methane control efforts, linking sectoral policies with atmospheric evidence on sectoral, sub-national, and seasonal emissions during 2019--2024. We quantify daily methane emissions from China using a regional atmospheric inverse model with TROPOMI satellite observations. Our results reveal an average methane emissions increase rate of 0.3 Tg yr$^{-2}$ in Eastern&Central China, likely a milder trend than in the 2010s. Coal industry methane emissions intensity declined for the first time (-3.2% yr$^{-1}$) despite rising production, possibly associated with diverse policy instruments, mandates, and incentives. We further highlight two emerging challenges for future mitigation: leaks from expanding urban gas use amid the energy transition and rising agricultural emission yet with substantial uncertainty in estimates. Lastly, declining emissions intensity of coal mines points to the future role of targeted mandates and incentives in encouraging methane reduction for other sectors.

A mix of policies is needed to close the climate ambition gap

We compare eight integrated assessment models to analyze the effects of additional climate policies targeting production and energy supply, consumption and energy demand, and the land sector on top of a moderate carbon price. We find that the combination of these additional policies can close the gap between well-below 2 °C and 1.5 °C pathways with overshoot assuming the same carbon price trajectory. While production and energy supply policies are necessary to decarbonize the energy sector in the long run, consumption and demand-side transformations can reduce emissions especially in the short-term, thus enabling lower cumulative emissions leading to lower peak temperature. Additional land policies can not only reduce CO2 emissions further, but also target non-CO2 emissions and reduce global warming even further.

A scenario assessment of the global mitigation effort in the light of the 2035 climate finance goal

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreed in 2024 to boost finance for climate change in developing countries to USD 300 billion by 2035. In this study, we assess how much mitigation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is possible by generating this amount of revenues from carbon pricing in industrialized regions. We assess a scenario that considers carbon prices differentiated for industrialized, transition and developing regions. We find that such scenario provides 16% more GHG emissions reductions by 2035 compared to a scenario where the existing national mitigation targets (represented by the nationally determined contributions as of 2022) are achieved. Despite this, a considerable gap remains in terms of the revenues needed to achieve emissions reductions aligned with a pathway securing the climate target of 1.5 °C global warming above pre-industrial levels. Therefore, these outcomes suggest that considerably larger climate mitigation actions are needed beyond the climate finance goal agreed by nations under the UNFCCC. In addition, we highlight by means of additional scenarios the implications (in terms of emissions reductions, carbon price revenues and consumption losses) of the absence in the carbon pricing scheme of the major GHG emitters from industrialized regions (USA) and from developing regions (China).

Comparison of major EU and climate scenarios for 2040: what contribution from energy savings and sufficiency?

Extended abstract 3-288-26 While the role of energy demand reduction to meet climate objectives is increasingly considered, most scenarios do not fully reflect this potential, and only a few explore low-demand pathways. Literature reviews show that this is not only due to preferences of modellers or scenario users, but also to structural limitations of models.This analysis investigates how main energy and climate scenarios for Europe balance demand and supply-side options and how this is informing policy making, with a particular focus on the setting of EU 2040 targets. It first focuses on a comparison and benchmark of scenarios. Eight prominent scenarios by institutions, think tanks and an NGO are selected on criteria of comprehensiveness, detail of modelling and compliance with the Paris Agreement. They are then characterised using 14 indicators that reflect their outcomes (GHG budget, fossil fuel consumption) and their use of major levers (renewables, hydrogen, electrification, reduction of consumption, carbon sinks). These numbers are then compared to targets and thresholds drawn from reports on climate objectives and the potential of various options by the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC). This benchmark of the relative ambition and feasibility of scenarios shows a positive correlation between demand reduction – compared to stronger reliance on supply-oriented options – and climate ambition, feasibility and robustness, providing major lessons for the EU’s 2040 target setting. The analysis then reviews detailed assumptions on energy demand for buildings and mobility, comparing the low-demand CLEVER scenario with the Commission's S3 – one of the few providing such detail. Beyond the transparency gap in data, this comparison reveals the prevalence in a scenario like S3 of trend-based projections of activity, contrasting with CLEVER’s explicit modelling of energy services. Analysing this gap can help to inform policies about the potential of energy savings. Read the full abstract. Download presentation.

Beyond Green Growth: Evaluating the Biophysical Feasibility of Rail-Centric Transport Systems in the European Union

Achieving the European Union’s (EU-27) 2050 climate neutrality goal requires a drastic reduction in transport emissions. This study utilizes the pymedeas2 integrated assessment model to evaluate trade-offs between technology-led and structure-led transitions under both continuous growth and steady-state economic paradigms. Our results reveal that relying primarily on private vehicle electrification falls short of emission targets. The baseline REF-G scenario—following current institutional roadmaps centred on rapid technological substitution and sustained economic growth—maintains a high final energy demand and requires a cumulative extraction of 2.35 Mt of lithium by 2050, claiming nearly 6.4% of current global proven reserves solely for European mobility. Conversely, combining a modal shift toward electrified rail with macroeconomic stabilization (RAIL-SSE) reduces transport final energy demand by 68% relative to the projected 2024 peak and decreases lithium requirements by 57%. This sufficiency-driven pathway achieves the deepest absolute climate mitigation, dropping residual transport emissions to approximately 90 MtCO2/year. Furthermore, despite the front-loaded costs of rail expansion, RAIL-SSE emerges as the least capital-intensive pathway, requiring a total investment of USD 19.83 trillion—a systemic saving of USD 7.27 trillion relative to the REF-G baseline. We conclude that reaching absolute sustainability in the EU transport sector necessitates a policy shift away from resource-intensive green growth strategies toward demand sufficiency and durable public infrastructure.

The Evolution of Energy Use and CO ₂ Emissions in Mexico: Climate Change – Induced NaTech Risks and Sectoral Insights