Evaluating Maritime Security Risks in the Black Sea Region: The Rtotal Index and Adaptive Response Strategies (2022–2024)

Abstract

The Black Sea maritime transport system has experienced signiϐicant disruption since 2022 due to military conϐlict, geopolitical instability, and shifts in shipping routes. Under these conditions, maritime security has become a critical factor affecting navigational safety and macroeconomic resilience. This study reframes security expenditures as strategic investments that support business continuity and strengthen system resilience. An integrated dynamic risk assessment model, Rtotal, is developed to evaluate the combined inϐluence of geopolitical threats, economic losses, adaptive management capacity, and technological innovation on maritime transport. The methodology combines comparative analysis, mathematical modeling, and proxy indicators of maritime risk. The framework is applied to the Black Sea region using operational and market data from 2021–2024. The analysis integrates publicly available data from UNCTAD, the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority, the Lloyd’s Market Association, and international freight monitoring systems. The Rtotal index declined from 0.95 at the peak of the regional crisis to 0.42, demonstrating the measurable contribution of resilience‑oriented management and technology‑based security measures, including vessel tracking and defensive risk mapping. This study contributes to maritime economics by providing a quantitative framework for assessing compound risks under prolonged geopolitical instability. The proposed model supports maritime authorities, port operators, and liner shipping companies in evaluating resilience strategies and investment decisions for high‑risk maritime environments.